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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still